Question: You have noticed that your officer is happy on 60 percent of your calls, so you assign a probability of his being happy on your visit as 0.6 or 6/ 10. You have noticed also that if he is happy, he accedes to your requests with a probability of 0.4 whereas if he is not happy, he accedes to the requests with a probability of 0.1. You call one day and he accedes to your request. What is the probability of his being happy?

Solution:

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